Live Oscar Blog (scroll for predictions)

12:01 bp: Like kyra, happy for Ben.  I enjoyed Argo and thought it succeeded as a movie specifically because of his direction.  Also Lincoln didn’t win and I’m happy about that. Thanks for reading, keep it coming.

12:00 kyra: What a night. Happy to see Ben walk away with the Oscar. That was a great movie and definitely deserving. I’m wincing as I watch Kristin Chenowith close the show, but wanted to thank anyone who read along, and please stick around. This is just the beginning of what we hope is gonna be an entertaining read for everyone out there for months and perhaps years to come. Argofuck yourself

11:58 bp: Obviously we now know the reason Zero Dark Thirty didn’t win: LIBRUL CONSPIRACY HEADED BY OBAMA

11:50 bp: Bradley Cooper won, right? Obviously Daniel Day-Lewis can just riff for as long as he wants cause he knows he ain’t getting cut off.

11:48 kyra: …but are you drunk now?


11:45 bp: I would like to Eternal Sunshine Jennifer Lawrence slipping from my memory, thanks

11:40 kyra: I’m just happy Spielberg didn’t win. That movie was boooooooring. Also, NAMASTE. I’LL CYA AT SOUL CYCLE MR. LEE

11:37 bp: And the winner is Ang Lee*. If I can put an asterisk on it that means it didn’t happen and Bigelow, Affleck, and Tarantino all won

11:31 kyra: so amazed that a loaded Tarantino can get on stage to accept his award for writing a movie that used ‘nigger’ more than 100 times. He then proceeds to kill his speech by giving the actors all the credit and praising the other writers. He truly can do no wrong

11:30 bp: Also interesting to see that there are 2 people in the world that you cannot play off with music and they are Jay-Z and Quentin Tarantino

11:28 bp: Thrilled for Tarantino.  That was the best script of the year in my opinion (even though Zero Dark Thirty was my favorite movie). Not that it counts for anything but he also gave an incredible interview with Howard Stern a couple months ago promoting the movie. 

11:23 bp: Someone plz ask Charlize her thoughts on her countryman Oscar Pistorious. I haven’t heard about him since the Olympics

11:12 kyra: Adele’s last name is Atkins? That isn’t ironic at all

11:11 kyra: Ang Lee is so asian and I love it

11:08 kyra: so here’s the DL on Marvin Hamlisch, who was the anchor of the ‘In Memoriam’–dude has an EGOT + 2 Golden Globes + a fucking Pulitzer. Not even Charles Woodson’s resume can top that

11:04 bp: Phew, Emmanuelle Riva made it past the In Memoriam section.

10:53 bp: Isn’t Jeff Katzenberg already in that group of billionaires who’ve pledged to give like 99% of their money away when they die? Took some real courage to get that humanitarian award, huh

10:51 kyra: “I’m totally unprepared for this” /pulls jazz flute out of his shirt a la Ron Burgundy–credit to @BobDobbs65

10:48 kyra: Kristen Stewart is just awful

10:46 kyra: I feel like there is an orchestrated effort by the SLP people to drop ‘Playbook’ from whenever they talk about the movie because ‘Silver Linings’ is a sexier and shorter title. When I see ads for it now it’s just ‘Silver Linings’ and Jennifer Lawrence even called it that when she was on the red carpet. Frank Luntz strikes again

10:44 bp: I feel like it took a Herculean struggle for Tarantino to not blink in the 10 seconds while Nicole Kidman was talking about his movie

10:39 bp: That crazy lady who sang “Goldfinger” got a standing O.  You’re not so hot Adele

10:35 kyra: Apropos of nothing, was anyone else bothered by the fact that Sacha Baron Cohen was the only one in the movie who used a French accent? Everyone else was British I thought

10:30 bp: Kyra the staging of every musical since 1980 wasn’t suspenseful enough for you?

10:29 bp: That Harvey Weinstein photobomb of the Academy president’s entrance was part of the Silver Linings Playbook campaign

10:27 kyra: aaand Anne Hathaway wins the award everyone expected. It makes you think they should’ve done this one first and saved the Best Supporting Actor for later because that one had more suspense, but what do I know

10:20 kyra: is this Christopher Plummer or Mitch McConnell?

10:18 kyra: no one else will know it’s a tie when the Oscar is sitting on your shelf, but you’ll know. You got some lesser tie Oscar

10:17 bp: WTF a tie? We don’t play soccer in Amurrica.

10:14 bp: For the record, Mark Wahlberg doesn’t masturbate.

10:12 bp: “It’s sound mixing, so you know Ted has to present.” – my mom

10:09 kyra: I think Chris Pine was in the tanning booth a little too long…should stick to less than 8 hours a day

10:06 kyra: Samantha Barks coming in HOT. She is the only one in the movie who sang in the 25th anniversary performance, which puts the movie to shame

10:01 bp: Nice pity clap there for Russell Crowe, Oscars crowd.

9:53 bp: Straight from Kolob OT Level VII Thetan John Travolta took time off from racing motorcycles with Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman to attend tonight’s Oscars.

9:51 kyra: I definitely caught a glimpse of Le Chife during that last foreign nominated film! Bond night continues

9:46 kyra: going back to James Bond for a second, I’m pretty disappointed that Goldeneye for N64 wasn’t featured in that montage. That game was formative in my youth and easily a top 5 N64 game ever

9:43 bp: “How to Survive a Plague” was the only nominated documentary I saw. Therefore it deserves to win. Also it is really powerful stuff that I highly recommend.  For all the talk about how “Lincoln” is such a vivid portrayal of government getting stuff done, “Plague” shows how not just American citizens, but the most marginalized of US citizens, banded together to force government to confront a deadly problem it was doing its best to avoid and act accordingly.

9:38 bp: Liam Neeson was originally attached to play Lincoln.  But the North wasn’t fighting Albania so he said “why the hell am I wasting my time.”

9:35 kyra: For those who didn’t see the live-action shorts, Curfew was about a guy about to commit suicide when his sister calls to say she has no one else to turn to and needs him to babysit her daughter. It was a really nice story and I’m happy for them. Everyone should go out and see the shorts if they can.

9:30 bp: God, I’d rather listen to Seth MacFarlane croon unironically than hear Goldfinger again

9:29 bp: The word I think of when I see Pierce Brosnan’s face is “suave.” That’s the way the fat gay man on E! described him.

9:26 kyra: Oh definitely, when he’s in the weapons room and opens a fan emitting a series of poisonous darts that was great. That’s gonna be useful in the field. Speaking of Bond, I have to say that Pierce Brosnan is the best looking James Bond. He is the definition of debonair. What’re your thoughts?

9:24 bp: In case you were wondering what the best Bond was, it was “The World is Not Enough.” That was a classic.

9:20 kyra: I don’t see why the Les Mis people deserve best makeup considering Helena Bonham Carter looks like that every day

9:14 kyra: I really hope Brad Pitt is nominated for a Razzie for the Chanel No. 5 commercial

9:12 kyra: well done on the Jaws ‘play off’ music, well done

9:08 kyra: and the winner is…Lucius Malfoy!

9:07 bp: “Best cinematography” means “longest hair” wut? Should’ve been Jennifer Lawrence

9:06 bp: For all the awards I don’t understand I propose that Jennifer Lawrence win them all

9:05 kyra: something about Jennifer Lawrence’s smile is weird but I’m still in love with her

9:02 bp: Wait why wasn’t Russell Crowe part of the opening number?

8:52 kyra: as people have said countless times before, Christoph Waltz was put on Earth to play Quentin Tarantino characters

8:50 bp: FUCK YEAH I am 1/1

8:48 kyra: shocked Joaquin Phoenix is here considering the Oscars are bullshit

8:41 bp: The host absolutely nobody is clamoring for: LL Cool J.

8:38 bp: Seth MacFarlane Singing brought to you by Mr. Skin

8:34 kyra: I saw you clapping at the wife beating joke Robert Downey Jr.!

8:31 bp: Is Lena Dunham going to be getting naked during the show tonight? It’s not Sunday night until she does.

8:26 kyra: odds Seth MacFarlane belts out some operatic solos? 100% Why he thinks people are interested in hearing him sing I have no idea

8:25 kyra: Lord Grantham would be incredibly disappointed with the dress code for this event. You wear white tie or you eat with the help

8:16 bp: Daniel Day-Lewis is incredible in-character as Awards Show Attendant.

8:12 bp: Please, Anne, I haven’t heard enough about the “intense, deep relationships” you formed with your Les Mis castmates this awards season. Even though you were in the movie for 5 minutes and took it in.  Of course you are wearing Tiffany. Of course.

8:09 kyra: this year’s Oscar nominees and winners brought to you by Arthur Anderson

8:05 kyra: also switched to ABC…and why is John Clayton interviewing people on the red carpet? Oh dear god that’s the remains of Kristen Chenowith

8:00 bp: I am switching to ABC because I’m pretty sure E! can’t interview people while ABC is on the air and OHMIGOD Kristen Chenowith’s voice. A combination of inhaled helium and strangled cockatoos.

7:58 bp: The non-straight-men TV presenters on E! are discussing Salma Hayek’s “smokey eye” this year.  It is beautiful.

7:50 bp: Easily the best cover of “Skyfall” I’ve ever heard: 

7:49 bp: Joel McHale is on E! And he is tall, so he must be straight.

7:43 kyra: Does E! employ straight men?

7:30 bp: At least full-frontal Helen Hunt detracts from plastic-surgery-face Helen Hunt.

7:25 kyra: I take the point. It’s probably worth watching that movie again. In other news, the only thing I know about the movie Helen Hunt is in is that I’m pretty sure she did full frontal

7:22 bp: Also let me state for the record that I am DREADING Anne Hathaway’s incredible fake and pompous acceptance speech. She was SO BRAVE though.

7:13 bp: Kyra I hear your concern with JLaw being too young for the role, but I don’t care.  If you think Joseph Gordon Levitt can do no wrong, the same goes for the angelic Jennifer Lawrence. Her ability to hit the notes needed for the part—the mood swings require her to go from depressed to manic to angry at the snap of the finger—made up for the implausibility that she could have only been married to her dead husband for 6 weeks before he died. Her age, to me, doesn’t bring the movie down because she didn’t try to play the part as if she was much older than she really is, contrary to what other reviewers have said.  Maybe it’s a little tough to accept her character getting married so young, but she is coming from a working-class neighborhood and she’s a little screwed up, so I’m cool with it.

7:05 kyra: The fat to gay ratio on whoever this guy is on E! is astronomical

7:00 kyra: Joseph Gordon Levitt is definitely up there on my ‘list of people I would love to be right now.’ Dude is killing it. Looper was awesome

6:54 kyra: bp–I know you were a big fan of Jennifer Lawrence’s performance in SLP, but I still felt like she was too young for the role. This woman is supposed to have been married for ~3 years before the events of the movie take place. Obviously I know that people get married very young in some places, but I still found it hard to buy her as the person who actually had gone through these experiences. That took something away from the movie for me.

6:45 bp: Holy shit what is the “mani cam”.  I have never actually watched E! before.

6:43 kyra: My personal ‘Big 8’ picks: Django Unchained; write-in for Ben Affleck for best director (actual pick: Russell); Daniel Day-Lewis; Jessica Chastain; write-in of Leo Dicaprio for best supporting actor (actual pick: Waltz); Amy Adams; Tarantino for original screenplay; Argo for adapted screenplay.

Predictions for who will win: same as buckeye. I actually think that Argo is something of a lock for Best Picture at this point. If you look at Nate Silver’s analysis (see bottom of this post) you can see that Argo has cleaned up this awards season, and deservedly so. I also think Spielberg is a lock for Best Director given all of his competitors weren’t nominated. If I was betting I would throw down a parlay with Argo + Hathaway + Spielberg + Day-Lewis.

6:25 buckeyedpeas: If I had a ballot in the 8 major categories, my picks would be Zero Dark Thirty, Michael Haneke for director, Joaquin Phoenix, Jennifer Lawrence, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams, Tarantino for original screenplay, and David O. Russell for adapted screenplay.

My predictions for who will win: Argo, Spielberg, Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Christoph Waltz, Anne Hathaway, Tarantino, and Tony Kushner for Lincoln.  As far as I can tell the only locks are Day-Lewis and Hathaway.

For sake of reference, here’s what I’ve seen of the nominated movies/performances this year, in no order: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, The Master, Flight, Skyfall, How to Survive a Plague.  I liked The Master if you couldn’t tell.

6:11 kyra: Seth MacFarlane’s dad looks like he is either a math professor, or he has been trying and failing to make a time machine for the past 25 years.

5:30 kyra: Programming note: I will be predominantly watching E!’s Red Carpet coverage for anyone who wants to follow along. I also wanted to give full disclosure of the movies I have actually seen that are nominated this year so you can know whether or not I actually know what I’m talking about.

Movies I have seen: Argo; Lincoln; Silver Linings Playbook; Zero Dark Thirty; Django Unchained; Les Miserables; The Master; Skyfall; Moonrise Kingdom; the animated shorts; the live-action shorts

Articles Worth Reading:

Nate Silver Predictions

Leitch and Grierson Predictions

Drew Magary’s Hater’s Guide

Wesley Morris Predictions

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One Response to Live Oscar Blog (scroll for predictions)

  1. Pingback: 2013 Emmys Live Blog | Room Eleven

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